{"id":185164,"date":"2023-09-27T04:26:31","date_gmt":"2023-09-27T04:26:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/indiansapidnews.com\/?p=185164"},"modified":"2023-09-27T04:26:31","modified_gmt":"2023-09-27T04:26:31","slug":"xi-didnt-want-to-avoid-modi-at-g20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/indiansapidnews.com\/india\/xi-didnt-want-to-avoid-modi-at-g20\/","title":{"rendered":"‘Xi didn’t want to avoid Modi at G20’"},"content":{"rendered":"
‘We will likely never know why Xi decided not to travel to New Delhi. One possible explanation could be his desire to avoid a meeting with US President Joe Biden.’<\/strong><\/p>\n Alfredo Montufar-Helu<\/strong> is based in Beijing, where he heads the China Center for Economics and Business at the global business think-tank, The Conference Board.<\/p>\n In India for a conference, he shares his views on China’s future business and geopolitical trajectories with Aditi Phadnis<\/strong>\/Business Standard<\/em>.<\/p>\n President Xi Jinping did not attend the Group of Twenty (G20), and many have said this is a setback for relations between India and China. How do you see relations developing?<\/strong><\/p>\n We should not overinterpret President Xi’s decision to not attend the G20 as a reflection of the China-India relationship.<\/p>\n President Xi recently met with Prime Minister Narendra D Modi at the BRICS Summit; if he had not wanted to meet, he would not have gone to this meeting.<\/p>\n Instead of attending personally, he designated Premier Li Qiang, who serves as his second-in-command and holds a prominent role in the Chinese government as the leader of the State Council.<\/p>\n This choice highlights President Xi’s trust in Premier Li. He is also a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China, holding a high-ranking position within the party.<\/p>\n Why did President Xi not attend himself?<\/strong><\/p>\n We will likely never know why President Xi decided not to travel to New Delhi, leaving us to only speculate.<\/p>\n One possible explanation could be his desire to avoid a meeting with US President Joe Biden.<\/p>\n Despite recent progress in reopening communication channels between China and the US, tensions persist, as indicated by media headlines.<\/p>\n Therefore, it appears that the timing may not have been conducive for a China-US meeting.<\/p>\n I believe his decision had nothing to do with avoiding a meeting with Prime Minister Modi.<\/p>\n The relationship between India and China has always been complex.<\/p>\n These two countries are among the world’s largest economies and are both expanding their nuclear, military, and geopolitical capabilities.<\/p>\n Sharing a lengthy border in the same region naturally leads to occasional clashes and even kinetic actions.<\/p>\n However, both governments have been able to prevent these tensions from escalating into a catastrophe.<\/p>\n In recent times, businesses have often found themselves caught in the crossfire of policy and regulatory actions.<\/p>\n Chinese investments in India, particularly in technology and information technology sectors, had to exit the Indian market due to decisions made by Indian authorities.<\/p>\n Likewise, not only Indian but also other foreign companies operating in China have faced disruptions due to sudden policy shifts and regulatory changes, particularly concerning data handling activities.<\/p>\n But that is not to say both countries don’t want to do business with the world.<\/p>\n On the geopolitical front, both India and China share the perspective that the current international order does not adequately represent their voice.<\/p>\n This sentiment is also echoed by other major developing nations such as Brazil, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n What the recent BRICS Summit tells us is that India and China accept that they need to engage with each other.<\/p>\n The Chinese government acknowledges India’s significance as a regional power and, therefore, prefers India not to align too closely with the US, especially when it comes to efforts to contain China’s rise.<\/p>\n A multipolar world better serves China’s strategic interests.<\/p>\n What are President Xi’s new economic and political priorities, the economic challenges China is facing, and the role of One Belt One Road (OBOR) in this context?<\/strong><\/p>\n I think the answer is simple. President Xi wants a stronger China and aspires to become a world leader in every aspect, ranging from economic prowess and people’s prosperity to technological innovation and military might.<\/p>\n However, against the backdrop of economic vulnerabilities, global instability, and increasing antagonism from the West, China is increasingly prioritising its pursuit of national interests, bolstering its security, and emphasising self-reliance.<\/p>\n Consequently, the Communist party has reinforced its authority in designing and executing policies in crucial strategic areas, such as advancing technological self-sufficiency, upholding financial stability, and enhancing control over data management.<\/p>\n Notably, China has also exhibited greater assertiveness on the regional military front.<\/p>\n Economic development cannot be disentangled from national security goals. But to be fair, this is the same with the US as with India.<\/p>\n Given the mounting economic and geopolitical complexities, it’s unsurprising that the government is tightening its grip, including by expanding the regulatory framework and bolstering enforcement in critical sectors.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n And OBOR?<\/strong><\/p>\n The Chinese government is actively pursuing its international interests through a series of initiatives aimed at connecting China with the Global South.<\/p>\n One prominent example of this strategy is the OBOR initiative.<\/p>\n When OBOR was initially launched, it lacked a clear and precise definition.<\/p>\n However, over time, it has undergone significant refinements.<\/p>\n In its early stages, a lot of the Chinese state capital was deployed in uninvestable projects.<\/p>\n Some of these ventures also had negative repercussions on the reputation of OBOR and China.<\/p>\n As it became evident that many of these projects were not bankable, China changed tack.<\/p>\n The blame does not fall on China alone; it takes two to tango.<\/p>\n Host governments play a crucial role in bringing projects to the market and should conduct thorough feasibility assessments to mitigate financial risks.<\/p>\n Projects motivated by political considerations oftentimes end up as white elephants.<\/p>\n One of the most attention-grabbing instances was the Hambantota port project in Sri Lanka, which raised significant concerns about the potential for a debt trap.<\/p>\n Interestingly, China was in the process of deleveraging its economy during this time, making it less sensible to invest heavily in projects with a high likelihood of failure.<\/p>\n During the second Belt and Road Forum in 2019, China introduced a new approach: emphasising the importance of respecting environmental, social, and governance standards, acknowledging local customs, and making projects attractive to international capital.<\/p>\n This marked the transition to what can be termed as Belt and Road 2.0.<\/p>\n Then came the pandemic. Infrastructure investments plummeted as top international capital providers took their capital home.<\/p>\n In Africa and Latin America, countries abruptly found their financial and fiscal capacities strained.<\/p>\n Naturally, this had a profound impact on infrastructure development, and even today, there remains a widening infrastructure investment gap in many developing markets.<\/p>\n OBOR has continued evolving. China’s current emphasis is on economic stability and the mitigation of potential financial risks arising from its substantial debt levels.<\/p>\n Consequently, the allocation of capital for OBOR projects is expected to decrease significantly compared to previous levels.<\/p>\n Priority will be accorded to projects aligned with the government’s strategic objectives.<\/p>\n This entails securing essential raw materials to bolster the advancement of high-technology sectors and reinforcing bilateral ties with major Global South economies, countering perceived efforts from the Western world to ‘contain’ China’s ascent.<\/p>\n Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani\/Rediff.com<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n